#21, Predictions
Freakonomics Radio: The Folly of Prediction
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It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay – when the accuracy rate of pundits appear next to their faces on TV, when the weatherman who botches the 5-day forecast by 20 degrees has to make his next appearance soaking wet. We’ll also look at the deep roots of divining what tomorrow brings, from the invention of religion to new understandings of how we make decisions about the future.
Prediction: (an act) to declare or indicate in advance; especially: foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason.
On a warm night in Seoul, one can enter a fortune teller's tent and hear about their future for the bargain price of ten thousand won. One can get clues about future success and health and even find out about their ideal mate. Right or wrong, the fortune tellers collect their fee.
In Romania, witches (fortune tellers) have been popular for centuries. Their influence has become so pervasive that even government officials have turned to them for support. Recently however, these witches have come under increased scrutiny. The government has gone so far as to enact a law that penalizes witches for incorrect predictions. A witch that offers up a false prediction may have to pay a fine or even face time in jail.
We make predictions constantly in our daily life. Who will win the baseball game between LG and Doosan? What will the weather be like tomorrow? What will my score be on my school exam? Will Brenden's fish live for one month?
Why do people make predictions (connect this to the idea of incentives)? Why are people more likely to make large sweeping predictions like the end of the world? Should professionals like weathermen and news analysts be penalized for making incorrect predictions? Defend your position.
-Teacher Lee